Quarantine-free travel to China could happen within six months: analysts
IT COULD take up to six months for China to allow international arrivals without quarantine, despite the country's sudden relaxation of zero-Covid curbs earlier this month, say Singapore businesses and analysts. They also flagged the risk of a return to strict measures if infections surge.
UOB's research head Suan Teck Kin said: "At this juncture, it's more realistic to keep expectations low for border reopening and cross-border business travel to China to resume quickly."
On Dec 7, Beijing's National Health Commission announced a nationwide easing of restrictions that included cutting back on mass testing, allowing home quarantine for some, and ending large-scale lockdowns. This was a significant reversal of a zero-Covid policy that has battered the country's economy for the last three years.
Yet the swift pace of change may not continue. Suan noted that with fewer curbs, the Omicron variant's high transmissibility "is likely to mean spikes in waves of local infections, at least at the initial stage, that could cause alarm to a population that is so used to low case counts".
Governments and authorities are likely to prioritise keeping the situation under control before relaxing curbs further, especially for cross-border travel that could introduce imported cases, he added.
"A more reasonable timeline (for full border reopening) should be around or after the National People's Congress session in March 2023, when a new cabinet is formally in place and with the full-year economic objectives set, which will provide greater clarity on what the next steps would be."
Hong Ru, an assistant professor at Nanyang Business School who studies the Chinese economy, believes quarantine-free travel could be allowed within six months, after the peak of infections -- likely following Chinese New Year in January -- subsides.
Even before the Dec 7 announcement, China has been gradually easing travel requirements and quarantine measures, he pointed out. In November, quarantine for international travellers was cut from seven days to five, in both cases followed by three days of home observation.
"It's a logical next step for China to open up its borders... there is no need to quarantine (travellers), because the domestic cases will be much higher than imported cases from outside China in the next few months anyway," he said.
Kurt Wee, president of the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (ASME), expects quarantine-free business travel as early as the first quarter of 2023.
"China has already increased the number of international flights since October. I see things moving very rapidly... the giant demand stimulus is going to return to China within the next four to six months," he said. Wee is also chief executive officer (CEO) of biotech firm Celligenics, which has a facility in Chengdu.
Strict measures could return
But one risk is that infection waves could prompt a retightening of curbs. This uncertainty may deter firms from going ahead with travel plans, industry players and market watchers told The Business Times.
According to Dec 13 media reports, Chinese leaders apparently delayed a key economic policy meeting amid signs of a surge in Covid-19 infections in Beijing.
Victor Mills, CEO of the Singapore International Chamber of Commerce, noted that despite the "dramatic" reduction in curbs, businesses remain concerned about the "fluid" situation in China.
"An influx of visitors to the country will inevitably cause an increase in the number of Covid-19 infections, which may or may not prompt the reintroduction of Covid-19 restrictions," he said.
"Obviously, (businesses) weigh those concerns against their need to build and maintain contacts to start, restart or expand their business in a very large market with as many opportunities as challenges."
Dr Ru noted the varying "robustness" of health systems across China's cities and provinces, which could lead to differing Covid-19 policies within the country: "There's still a long way to go before China returns to pre-Covid days."
Christopher Lim, CEO of software robotics firm Glee Trees, is taking a wait-and-see approach before making business travel plans to China. His last trip to the country was to Shanghai in October 2021, after setting up an office there virtually in May.
"The market sentiment is still not optimal, as people in China will be very cautious about meetings and trade exhibitions," he said. He does not want to risk being caught in a snap lockdown, and believes it will take at least a year for China to return to pre-pandemic activity levels.
Despite the ongoing uncertainties, ASME's Wee urged Singapore firms to start "stitching up their deals and negotiating their trades".
"Singapore businesses should not wait until it's all clear, because the world will rush in, and you will not be getting any advantage. You have to start planning how you're going to ramp up your business in China now," he said.
On Dec 7, Beijing's National Health Commission announced a nationwide easing of restrictions that included cutting back on mass testing, allowing home quarantine for some, and ending large-scale lockdowns.
Source: The Business Times