How COVID-19 Reshaped Global Death Rates – and What It Means for the Future

Why It Matters

The COVID-19 pandemic didn’t just claim lives – it changed long-term patterns of death worldwide. A new study reveals how deeply it disrupted mortality trends and what that might mean for life expectancy in years to come.

Key Takeaways

• The pandemic caused highly uneven mortality shocks across countries, ages, and years.
• Stronger healthcare systems and effective governments were linked to fewer excess deaths.
• The long-term impact on life expectancy will depend on how societies manage COVID-19 as it becomes endemic – and prepare for future pandemics.

The Uneven Toll of COVID-19

COVID-19 hit some countries much harder than others – and even within countries, it affected age groups in different ways. Researchers examined mortality data from 34 countries and regions between 1970 and 2023, focusing on the years 2020–2023 to understand the pandemic’s specific impact.

They found stark differences in the size and timing of excess deaths – deaths beyond what would be expected based on historical trends. For example, while countries like Indonesia and Malaysia saw significant spikes in death rates in 2021, others like Sweden saw a short-lived peak in 2020. Interestingly, in some places like Australia and Taiwan, the worst mortality came only later, in 2022.

Not all age groups were affected equally. While older adults bore the brunt in most cases, several countries reported surprisingly high increases in death rates among people in their 40s. In a few instances, younger age groups faced sharper percentage increases relative to their normally low mortality rates.

The variation wasn’t random. It reflected differences in health infrastructure, vaccination strategies, social behaviours, and even pre-existing mortality trends. Countries with historically faster improvements in health outcomes, such as Japan and Singapore, initially fared better but later experienced delayed spikes in deaths.

Why Some Countries Fared Better

To understand what shaped these differences, the researchers analysed three societal factors: government effectiveness, healthcare access and quality, and workplace mobility.

• Government effectiveness, measured before the pandemic, was linked to fewer excess deaths – especially in 2020 and 2021. Countries like Singapore and Finland, with high governance scores, saw lower-than-average increases in mortality.
• Healthcare access and quality also made a clear difference. Nations with well-developed health systems (like Switzerland and the Netherlands) experienced smaller mortality shocks, particularly in 2021 when vaccines became widely available.
• Workplace mobility, used as a proxy for lockdown strictness or remote working culture, had complex effects. Lower mobility early in the pandemic (fewer people going to work) was associated with fewer deaths. But by 2022, this trend reversed, likely due to reopening amid ongoing health risks.

A closer look at age-specific impacts showed that effective governance helped reduce deaths more in younger age groups, while high-quality healthcare mattered most for older populations. This suggests that a blend of strong institutions and accessible care offers the best shield in a health crisis.

What Comes Next for Mortality and Longevity

The pandemic’s effects on death rates didn’t end in 2023. The researchers used simulation models to forecast future mortality under various scenarios, ranging from optimistic (COVID’s impact disappears quickly) to pessimistic (its effects linger or future pandemics arise).

In most countries, the models suggest that mortality rates are returning to normal. But in some – such as Singapore, New Zealand, and Finland – death rates remained elevated in 2023, hinting at a slower recovery. Countries like Bulgaria and Lithuania, on the other hand, showed mortality levels already back to or below pre-COVID trends.

The study also projected life expectancy for people aged 30 and 65 in 2022. In the best-case scenario, a 30-year-old in Hong Kong could expect to live to age 94. Even under more pessimistic scenarios, many high-income countries retained life expectancies into the high 80s and 90s, highlighting ongoing longevity risks for insurers and pension systems.

These findings underscore that while COVID-19 was a short-term shock, its ripple effects may persist – particularly in countries where delayed health impacts or future outbreaks compound the strain on healthcare systems.

Business Implications

This study offers vital insights for insurers, actuaries, and public health policymakers:

• Life insurers and pension providers must reassess long-term risk models. Mortality patterns have shifted, and old assumptions about longevity may no longer hold.
• Policy responses matter. Countries with strong governance and healthcare systems suffered fewer excess deaths. This reinforces the business case for investing in resilience – not just in supply chains and IT, but in healthcare infrastructure.
• Future pandemics are not off the table. The models show how even a 1–5% annual chance of a new pandemic can meaningfully impact life expectancy. Firms and governments must plan for multiple scenarios – not just a return to “normal”.

For journalists, this research provides a fresh, data-driven lens on how health crises shape populations and economies, with far-reaching consequences.

 

Authors and Sources

Authors: Ou Dang (Aon Life Solutions), Shinichi Kamiya (Nanyang Technological University), Lei Zhou (Nanyang Technological University)

Original article: North American Actuarial Journal