​Is it the end of the runway for the giant jet?

When it comes to planes, big is clearly not better.

On Sept 30, 1968, the world got its first glimpse of the Boeing 747, as the jumbo jet with its distinctive hump rolled out of a factory in Everett, Washington.

It was dubbed Queen of the Skies, a title it eventually gave up almost four decades later to the Airbus 380 - an even bigger flying machine designed to carry as many as 555 passengers in a three-class configuration or 853 passengers in a single-class economy configuration.

On Oct 25, 2007, Singapore Airlines (SIA) became the first to fly the A-380 commercially - from Singapore to Sydney.

Twelve years later, the B-747 and A-380, built to transport large numbers of air travellers across major airports, have become irrelevant to passenger airlines. 

Orders have stagnated, while those still flying are slowly but surely being phased out. 

The skies now belong to smaller, more efficient flying machines that come with two instead of four engines that power the bigger birds. 

And while big airports that can accommodate the giant jets continue to grow, travellers are increasingly opting for point-to-point services instead of having to fly through major hubs. This fuels the need for smaller aircraft.

Is this the end of the runway for jumbo jets?

When American chief engineer Joe Sutter and his team at Boeing sat down in the 1960s to design the B-747, they set out to build an aircraft that could be used both as a passenger carrier and a cargo plane.

Convinced that the future of passenger flights belonged to supersonic aircraft, the team was prepared that the B-747 could one day be good only for cargo services.

With this in mind, the plane was designed with a flip-up nose, hinged at the top to make it easy to load and unload even large cargo items quickly.

The cockpit got in the way so designers added the iconic hump to house the pilot cabin. From its first commercial flight in 1970, the B-747 went on to become a big hit with more than 1,500 jets built to date. 

"It's all about timing", said aviation analyst Shukor Yusof from Endau Analytics. 

"The B-747 came at a time when intercontinental long-haul travel was about to take off... There was no competition when it was launched and jet fuel was relatively inexpensive, which made the four-engined aircraft a viable proposition for airlines."

Half a century later, though, the B-747 is starting to disappear from the skies as SIA, Qantas, British Airways, Lufthansa and other major carriers phase them out in favour of newer twin-engined and more efficient planes like the A-350 and B-777s. 

SIA operated its last B-747 flight in 2012, Qantas says it will phase out its remaining 747s by 2020 and British Airways will do the same by 2024.

Last year, Boeing received just 18 orders for its jumbo jet; the bulk from logistics giant UPS, which bought 14 freighters.

Notwithstanding its glorious entry into commercial service in SIA colours, the A-380 could not have made its debut at a worse time. 

Professor Guido Gianasso, academic director of the Iata-Nanyang Advanced Management Programme at Nanyang Technological University's Nanyang Business School, said: "Its introduction into service coincided with the global financial crisis and the hardest times in the history of commercial aviation."

Several technical issues also emerged over the years, from problems with its Rolls-Royce engines to cracks in wing fittings.

Last year alone, close to 80 A-380 international flights were cancelled due to technical problems, Prof Gianasso pointed out.

High fuel prices in the last decade, which coincided with increasing competition among global carriers for market share and profits, also worked against the viability of the four-engined giant. 

Some analysts even say that Airbus got it wrong, right from the start. 

"The commercial assumptions behind the launch of the A-380 have proved wrong," said Prof Gianasso.

Superjumbos rely on transporting large numbers of passengers between major hub airports like Changi, Dubai and Heathrow, from where they would connect to smaller airports.

Unfortunately for Airbus, travellers increasingly prefer to fly direct to their destinations, which typically requires smaller aircraft.

In addition, passengers - particularly in first and business class - also expect a spread of departure times to suit their needs.

"The market has given its verdict," said Prof Gianasso, noting that A-380 sales have stagnated. 

Airbus said on its website that as at Jan 31, it had received 313 orders for the aircraft, with 234 planes delivered - leaving a backlog of about 80 A-380s.

That number has since dropped after Qantas announced last week that it had cancelled an outstanding order for eight A-380s.

A further slide seems imminent, with talk that Emirates - which still has more than 50 A-380s on order - is looking to convert some of that to the smaller and more efficient A-350.

It is not good news for Airbus, given that the Dubai-based carrier, the biggest A-380 operator with about 110 of the giants, is possibly the only airline customer keeping the A-380 programme alive.

Airbus, which has cut its production rate for the A-380 to just eight aircraft per year from this year onwards, seems determined to keep the factory going for the next few years at least.

Perhaps it is stubbornly holding out for a miracle, a renewed interest in the giant jet.

Sadly, there seems to belittle, if any, hope that the plane-maker, which spent about US$25 billion (S$34 billion) to develop the aircraft, will ever come close to recouping the amount.

With just one real customer in Emirates, it is unviable for the A-380 programme to continue for much longer.

In 2007, Airbus made history when president and chief executive officer Tom Enders officially handed over the first A-380 - the biggest passenger plane ever to be built - to launch customer SIA. 

The grand event attended by more than 500 guests was held at Airbus' delivery centre in Toulouse, France.

In April this year, Mr Enders will retire, paving the way for Airbus (commercial aircraft) president Guillaume Faury to take over.

Pulling the plug on the production of the much-loved but economically unviable A-380 programme would be a good way to go.

The good news for travellers is that the A-380s and B-747s already flying will continue to soar through the skies for many years to come.

Source: The Straits Times, 14 February 2019