CET860 Decision Making under Uncertainty

Course Provider

School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (MAE)



Academic Unit



Uncertainty has become a defining characteristic of the increasingly dynamic environment for decision making in a wide range of industry sectors that include manufacturing, supply chain and logistics, construction, and financial services etc. For many working professionals, failing to effectively deal with uncertainty often leads to heightened mental anxiety and results in poor decision-making in terms of taking unnecessary risks or missing potential opportunities.

The rationale of introducing this FlexiMasters course is to teach fundamental theories and practical methodologies concerning decision-making in an uncertain environment. The objective is to help working professionals to better understand the nature of decision-making under uncertainty, to learn fundamental theories and methodologies on decision making, and to systematically improve decision-making process and outcome.


This course is part of:

- Graduate Certificate in Supply Chain Engineering
- FlexiMasters in Supply Chain Engineering

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Upon completion of the course, the participants will be able to:

1. Describe, represent, and model a decision-making problem under uncertain environment.

2. Understand the process of information acquisition and information processing in decision making.

3. Understand risk attitude and its effect on decision-making under uncertainty.

4. Formulate and solve practical problems by systematically considering uncertainty and risks.

5. Make informed decisions that can effectively mitigate and hedge risks.

The course will cover the fundamental theories, methodologies, and practical tools to assist decision-making under uncertainty. The main topics and the time allocated for each topic are:

1. Representing and understanding uncertainty/risk

The section will combine qualitative description and quantitative probability models to come up with a unified approach to represent and model decision-making under uncertainty. Random numbers, probability distributions, and a generic decision framework will be introduced within the context of practical managerial decision-making.

2. Information processing and decision making

Commonly used decision heuristics and decision rules will be introduced. The value of information will be illustrated under a Bayesian framework for information acquisition, information processing, and sequential decision making.

3. Bounded rationality and risk aversion

This section will introduce the classical expected utility theory in economics and its application in decision-making under uncertainty. Decision makers’ risk attitude will be mathematically modeled and illustrated with practical examples. Behavioral models for decision-making will also be discussed within the context of practical decision-making under uncertainty.

4. Risk response, mitigation, and hedging

This section will cover methods and tools to systematically manage risks associated with decision-making in an uncertain environment. More specifically, methods based on system reliability and portfolio theory will be introduced to design systems that are more robust against uncertainties and to design policies that can better mitigate and hedge risks.


Working adults from the industry, professionals seeking mid-career change or fresh graduates with relevant background.

Standard Course Fee: S$1,296

SSG Funding Support

Course fee payable after SSG funding, if eligible under various schemes

Fee BEFORE funding & GST

Fee AFTER funding & 8% GST

Singapore Citizens (SCs) and Permanent Residents (PRs) (Up to 70% funding)



Enhanced Training Support for SMEs (ETSS)


SCs aged ≥ 40 years old
SkillsFuture Mid-career Enhanced Subsidy (MCES)
(Up to 90% funding)

NTU/NIE alumni may utilise their $1,600 Alumni Course Credits. Click  here for more information. 

    Read more about funding
    CET857 Warehousing Operations1
    CET858 Global Air Cargo1
    CET859 Multi-modal Transport and Sea Freight Management1
    CET861 Optimization of Supply and Transportation Networks1
    CET862 Decision Analytics and Applications1
    CET863 Sales and Operations Planning1
    CET864 Resource and Capacity Planning 2
    CET865 Introduction to Supply Chain Management1
    CET866 Supply Network Design & Inventory Management1
    CET867 Advanced Topics in Supply Chain Management1
    CET868 Strategic Sourcing and Procurement2
    CET869 Effective Supplier Management & Development1

    Listed courses are:

    • Credit-bearing and stackable to Graduate Certificate in Supply Chain Engineering (total 9AUs) and FlexiMasters in Supply Chain Engineering (total 15AUs).
    • SkillsFuture Credit approved.