El Niño Return Raises Alarm Over Haze and Heat Risks in Southeast Asia
CCEH warns of escalating transboundary haze and rising heat stress from climate-driven extremes
The second half of the year is expected to be particularly challenging for Southeast Asia, with forecasts indicating a 60% chance of El Niño returning, bringing hotter and drier conditions. These shifts are likely to intensify transboundary haze, raising serious concerns for public health and regional stability.
Prof. Yan Honglin, Director of the Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Health (CCEH) at NTU, highlighted that risk increases when El Niño occurs alongside another climate pattern that further reduces rainfall and dries the region. “This convergence of climate drivers creates conditions highly favourable for peatland fires and haze formation,” Prof. Yan said. “Current projections suggest that haze could re-emerge from the third quarter, making this period particularly demanding for the region.”
The resulting increase in PM2.5 exposure poses significant health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations, while rising heat stress further compounds the impact. Together, these factors can strain healthcare systems and reduce overall resilience to environmental shocks.
Beyond health, the implications extend to the regional economy, with haze and extreme heat likely to disrupt productivity, increase healthcare costs, and affect sectors such as agriculture, transport, and tourism. Experts emphasise that proactive measures and stronger regional cooperation will be critical to managing what could be a high-risk and economically challenging season.
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