About the competition: The “Imagine the Future” Scenarios Competition (the “Competition”) is a pilot competition organised by Shell Eastern Petroleum (Pte) Ltd and any affiliates of Royal Dutch Shell plc in Singapore, hereafter collectively known as “Promoter”. The Competition asks Participants to develop scenarios for more and cleaner energy in urban Asian homes in 2050: how residents live, work and have fun.
Achievement: 3rd prize winner.
REP Students: Dennis Tan Yi Xuan, Chang Chern Jie, Ernest Tan, Ang Shi Jie, Quek Yu Fei, Daniel Sebastian Yee, Tan Liang Wei and Zhang Jia Heng.
Proposal: Laminar Vs Turbulent Beijing 2050.
Description: Laminar explores driving factors such as current socio-political, environmental and technological trends, and economic feasibility to develop a scenario in the Probable region. In this scenario, Beijing’s roads will be led with electric vehicles with autonomous capabilities, with car ownership hovering at around 20% of the population. E-commerce will become an integral part of our daily lives and VR will complement the E-shopping experience. Autonomous vehicles will handle most delivery, with drones being a premium service. AR and VR will also gain traction in corporations and become essential for facilitating business operations effectively. Air travel becomes cheaper as traditional fuel engine planes are phased out and replaced with faster, quieter and more efficient hybrid engine planes. Homes become a hyper-connected environment, with household appliances constantly communicating with one another to optimise household operations. Buildings will be almost entirely ‘green’, designed to reduce environmental impact and improve occupant health through the use of IT. On the supply side, renewables consisting mainly of wind and solar will produce 52% of total energy generation. Smart grids and meters will be installed to complement the use of renewable energy.
Turbulent scenario arises when there are major disruptions in current trends in technology and governmental policies. It explores the boundaries of plausible scenarios by considering what Beijing would look like if there were breakthroughs in technology and enforcement of government mandates. In this scenario, the government enforces a zero-car ownership policy, outsourcing car transportation to private companies operating fleets of fully electric autonomous vehicles running on optimised routes, improving air and road conditions. More brick and mortar stores become obsolete as businesses take to online operations. Drones will be the main mode of short distance deliveries and “blue print shopping” will be made possible with advancements in 3D printing technology. Working and learning will be revolutionised with personalised AI and AR technology playing an integral part in an individual’s life. Astronautical technology allows space travel to become more affordable to the masses. AI will be seamlessly and intelligently integrated into home systems to understand the user by collecting data through IoT devices, capable of making decisions on behalf of the user. Energy consumption by buildings will be offset by on-site generation through renewables, resulting in most buildings being either Net-Zero or Energy-Plus. From a macro perspective, energy supply will change drastically with renewables (predominantly wind and solar) accounting for 81.6%.
The scenarios aim to give readers new perspectives on what energy and living in 2050 will look like. We hope that they will present valuable insights to anyone planning for the long-term future.