The Economic Growth Centre cordially invites you to a presentation on "The Fallout from the US Sub-prime Crisis: Economic Scenarios for Singapore"

Date	:	Thursday, 27 March 2008
Time	:	10.00 am - 11.30 am
Venue	:	HSS Meeting Room (S3.2-B1-09) School of Humanities and Social Sciences Nanyang Technological University

PROGRAMME

9:45 am - 10:00 am	:	Reception
10:00 am - 10:10 am	:	Opening Remarks Assoc Prof Euston Quah Head, Division of Economics
10:10 am - 10:40 am	:	Macroeconomic and Sectoral Forecasts Dr Choy Keen Meng
10:40 am - 11:00 am	:	Labour Market Forecasts Dr Randolph Tan
11:00 am - 11:30 am	:	Questions and Answers EMU Committee Members

Summary Newspapers articles The Straits Times The Business Times Berita Harian Today Background: With talk of a US recession in the air, meltdown in the financial markets, and spiralling oil prices, what lies in store for the Singapore economy in 2008? In this presentation, NTU's Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Unit will present two alternative economic scenarios for Singapore. An optimistic scenario sees the US economy narrowly escaping a recession and recovering in the second half of the year. The pessimistic scenario envisages a mild recession that lasts for 6 months. In line with these scenarios, forecasts of Singapore's real GDP growth, sectoral performances, inflation, employment, unemployment rate, and wage growth will be announced for 2008. The Nanyang Technological University has a long history of forecasting the Singapore economy. In keeping up this momentum, the Econometric Modelling and Forecasting Unit (EMU) of the Economic Growth Centre (EGC) continues to issue economic prognostications. Members of the EMU are Dr. Choy Keen Meng (Chair), Associate Professor Low Chan Kee, Associate Professor Shahidur Rahman, Dr. Randolph Tan, Associate Professor Huang Weihong and Associate Professor Joseph Dennis Alba. Their forecasts are based on new time series econometric models of the Singapore economy that take into account the major external and internal factors impinging on economic performance. Profile of the Economic Growth Centre (EGC) The Economic Growth Centre (EGC) was set up by the Division of Economics in 2004. The Centre is presently headed by Professor Lim Chong Yah as Director, assisted by Associate Professor Euston Quah as Co-Director and supported by Associate Professor Tan Khye Chong as Deputy Director and a Working Committee. The Centre has three Research Units: The Econometric Modelling Unit (EMU), The Exchange Rate Dynamics Unit and The Survey Research and Social Research Unit. The Centre analyzes economic policies related to education, social security, welfare, health, education and environmental management, among others. It hosts academic visitors, and also organizes seminars, conferences, workshops, and public talks on key issues relevant to Singapore and the region, and publishes a working paper series. For more information, visit http://www.ntu.edu.sg/hss/egc/. Reservation: Admission is free. Please reply to Christina, e-mail: achristina@ntu.edu.sg or Tel: 6790-5689 to confirm your attendance.