Anticipating volcanic threats: Professor Chris Newhall

When will it explode? And how large will the eruption be? These are the kinds of questions Prof Chris Newhall, one of the world's leading volcano scientists, has spent the last 35 years trying to answer.

Prof Newhall, head of the Volcano Group at NTU's Earth Observatory of Singapore, invented the widely-used Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) and was the co-leader of the crisis response team that forecast the massive 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines. It led to the evacuation of 85,000 people and saved thousands of lives.

Saving lives continues to be his mission and he has been active in volcanic crisis assistance in other parts of the world.

Formerly with the US Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Programme, Prof Newhall moved to the Philippines before joining NTU in 2008. He is among a team of top scientists from universities around the world who have moved to Singapore to join Asia's first earth observatory dedicated to the study of natural disasters.

One pull factor, he says, was the financial backing he received to build a volcano observatory database that can help predict future eruptions. "It's a real joy to be able to get moving on it," he recently told The Chronicle of Higher Education. This global database of "worldwide volcanic unrest", WOVOdat (The World Organisation of Volcano Observatories Database of Volcanic Unrest), will offer online information on historical volcanic earthquakes, swelling, sulphuric gas leaks and other changes. Comparisons of unrest and eruption records will improve eruption forecasts.

Since volcano research needs to start on real volcanoes, and Singapore does not have any, Prof Newhall's team is pursuing "laboratory volcano" projects in the Philippines and Indonesia. Studying the processes leading to volcanic eruptions will enable his team to develop new tools for forecasting.

After nearly disastrous encounters of jet aircraft with volcanic ash in 1982 and 1989, Prof Newhall led the organisation of the First International Symposium on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety. This has resulted in a much-improved system of global monitoring of ash clouds and warnings for pilots.

Prof Newhall’s views were recently sought by the media after volcanic ash from Iceland's spewing Eyjafjallajokul volcano snarled air traffic across Europe earlier this year, causing the cancellation of thousands of flights because the enormous volcanic ash plume made the skies unsafe to fly. He is currently promoting a detailed study of the effects of dilute ash on aircraft – data urgently needed by pilots, airlines and air safety officials.